Today, that script no longer fits modern football.

The 2022 World Cup was the biggest wake-up call. Morocco’s historic run to the semi-finals wasn’t just a fairytale ; it was proof that the gap between football’s traditional powers and emerging nations is getting smaller. After beating Belgium in the group stage before eliminating Spain and Portugal in the knockout rounds, Morocco showed the world that they belonged among football’s elite.

And yet… many people still didn’t learn the lesson.

Before the Netherlands faced Morocco in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup, the discussion wasn’t about how dangerous Morocco had become. Instead, it was about why the Dutch shouldn’t be worried.

Former Dutch international Rafael van der Vaart even repeated the controversial opinion he had previously expressed on Dutch television:

“Not to be rude, but every Moroccan that’s not good enough to play for the Netherlands is now playing for Morocco. We have players from Liverpool, Barcelona, etc. So let’s not worry about Morocco, really.”

On paper, the Netherlands had the bigger names.

On the pitch, none of that mattered.

Morocco knocked the Dutch out of the tournament in another memorable World Cup performance. It wasn’t luck. It wasn’t a miracle. It was another reminder that reputation doesn’t win football matches.

The same story repeated itself elsewhere.

Before Germany’s knockout clash with Paraguay, several football commentators confidently predicted an easy German victory. Some even described Paraguay as little more than a “third-grade” team, suggesting the match would feel like a routine domestic cup tie.

Football had other plans.

Paraguay matched Germany physically, tactically, and mentally before eliminating them on penalties.

After the defeat, Joshua Kimmich admitted:

“It feels terrible… We struggled badly in all three matches against lower-level teams. We didn’t play at our best against any opponent.”

That quote says a lot.

Germany still viewed Paraguay, Ecuador and Côte d’Ivoire as “lower-level teams.” The problem is that modern football no longer agrees.

Belgium offered another example.

After surviving a difficult match against Senegal thanks to a late and controversial penalty, head coach Rudi Garcia suggested that these kinds of teams usually lose their tactical discipline towards the end of matches.

Maybe that was once true.

But today’s African, Asian and South American emerging nations are no longer relying only on passion or physicality. Their players compete every week for Europe’s biggest clubs. Their coaches are tactically prepared. Their organisations are improving every year. Many of these teams now arrive at World Cups believing they can beat anyone not simply hoping to compete.

That confidence changes everything.

This is exactly why football giants keep getting caught by surprise.

They still prepare for these matches believing they’re facing the underdogs of ten or twenty years ago, while in reality they’re facing experienced internationals playing in the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1.

The names on the shirt may be different.

The quality isn’t.

Will football’s traditional giants continue to win most major tournaments? Probably.

But the days of expecting easy victories are disappearing.

The gap isn’t closed yet.

It’s simply becoming much smaller than many people are willing to admit.

And perhaps that’s the biggest mistake football’s biggest nations continue to make not underestimating talent, but underestimating how much the game itself has changed.

Since the beginning of the tournament, supporters have questioned not only VAR interventions but, more importantly, its lack of intervention in several controversial moments. From Ghana’s penalty appeal against England, to Brazil’s disallowed goal against Scotland, Germany’s early goal against Ecuador, Japan’s opening goal against Tunisia, and Lionel Messi’s red card against Algeria, it has often been difficult to understand why VAR chose to intervene in some situations while remaining silent in others.

As the tournament has progressed, it has become increasingly clear how difficult it is to maintain a consistent standard for VAR decisions. This inconsistency has made it harder for players, coaches, and fans to fully trust the system.

FIFA’s Head of Refereeing, Pierluigi Collina, has repeatedly stated that football is a physical sport and that not every contact should be considered a foul. He has also emphasized his desire for free-flowing games played at a high tempo during this World Cup.

However, allowing more physical challenges also raises the threshold for VAR intervention. Determining what qualifies as a “clear and obvious error” becomes far more difficult.

In other competitions, such as the UEFA Champions League, the threshold for VAR intervention appears lower, with video officials becoming involved more frequently. This creates a greater sense of consistency because players and fans expect reviews, even if that differs from VAR’s original philosophy of correcting only clear mistakes.

Following Ghana’s goalless draw against England, coach Carlo Queiroz said that “VAR went for a coffee” after his side were denied what many believed was a penalty following Ezri Konsa’s challenge on Prince Kwabena Adu. It was a clumsy challenge, and many were surprised that the incident was not reviewed.

The following day, Brazil had a goal ruled out against Scotland after Vinícius Júnior was judged to have fouled Jack Hendry in the build-up. Many observers believed Hendry had actually initiated the contact, raising fresh questions about the consistency of VAR decisions.

Former World Cup assistant referee Darren Cann also questioned the decision, saying there was slight contact but not enough to clearly justify overturning the on-field decision.

Germany’s match against Ecuador produced another controversial moment when Leroy Sané’s early goal was allowed to stand despite Aleksandar Pavlović appearing to catch Pedro Vite with a high boot in the build-up. Once again, many expected VAR to intervene, but referee original decision remained unchanged.

Overall, the tournament’s biggest teams have generally avoided controversial VAR decisions going against them. Brazil’s disallowed goal and Germany’s penalty incident remain among the few subjective calls that have negatively affected one of the favourites. France also appealed for a penalty against Senegal after Sadio Mané’s challenge on Kylian Mbappé. Although VAR recommended an on-field review, the referee decided not to award the penalty, once again highlighting how subjective these decisions can be.

At this World Cup, however, many supporters feel that consistency has been lacking. Whether that perception is entirely fair or not, confidence in VAR depends on transparency and equal treatment for every team, regardless of its history or status.

Football deserves a system that protects the integrity of the game equally for every nation. Hopefully, VAR will continue to evolve so that it is never perceived as favouring football’s biggest names over emerging or less-fancied teams.